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Review and future prospect of domestic aromatic hydrocarbon Market

Font Size: [Big][Mid][Small] 2015-2-27    Views: 1172    

January the aromatics market overall performance first after suppression Yang trend characteristics, in the first half of the time, aromatic market overall showing a variety of negative effects of rapid decline in the state, the first is crude oil in the short-term rebound in the second half of December after experiencing re entered the Powei downward channel, especially in the new year's Day festival rapidly Powei $50 activity evoked a strong market panic. Followed by the strong speculation, the market volume and price deviation from the problem has been pushed to the extreme, coupled with the decline in the long period of crude oil has led to the theoretical cost of aromatics is at a very low level, which prompted the downstream procurement activities become more cautious and careful. Finally, accompanied by shrinking demand, market supply pressure but in further improving: on the one hand is the domestic petrochemical enterprises because of the refined oil expansion of the library and the emergence of more aromatics sales, on the other hand is about 9 million tons of toluene in Asia will continue to be in the mid to late January land continued to arrive in the country, if taking into account the East China and Hong Kong has 9 million tons of inventory levels, even in accordance with the downstream terminal treasure island is expected early in January demand may improve the look of the conclusion of the more, the future social inventory levels will still ranked in more than 10 million tons.... The aromatics market as a whole to discuss later in re Powei 5000 yuan / ton, toluene soon minimum fell in 4300 yuan / tons, the lowest xylene probe to 4700 yuan / ton. But in the second half, the overall market sentiment in the enormous cost pressure and a resource gradually concentrated and under speculative improvement, especially because of the long period of crude oil fell, the market overall losses become unbearable weight bearing trader, spontaneous resilient sentiment has become very strong so, every oil market began to go short, pushing up the price rebound, but the most important is to gradually accelerate the decline in crude oil, and the rate of decline slowed from aromatic conditions, no matter how the head or the short side, have consensus on the bottom 4000 yuan / ton very strong, after this makes China the main market to discuss each approaching price range of 4000-4300 yuan / ton, oversold bounce activities will be quickly followed. At the same time, due to crude oil as the key reference standard are in signs of $45-48 a relatively wide range of sideways, which makes in short covering and downstream Spring Festival before a final round of expected procurement support, market speculation a relatively strong desire to rebound, but limited to social inventory on the high side, petrochemical enterprises still maintain high load level and resulting from the terminal to receive the ability to respond to relatively slow, market trends show more back into the second a concussion. , toluene, xylene, also because of its resource dispersion and commercialization of speculation demand and showed differentiation features: with good fluidity of toluene by the mood of the market a greater impact, and associated directly with the crude oil fluctuations, and flow of weak but resources are more concentrated xylene showed a relatively weak trend but steady characteristics, this phenomenon leads to toluene as the representative of the commercial activities of the aromatic again in 4500-4800 yuan / ton range fluctuated state of consolidation.


Due to the January domestic aromatic market continue to plagued by overall high supply capacity and the main weak demand, and as a guide of the crude oil is always fluctuated adjustment of prices, which in a large extent, again, for the delay production and procurement activities downstream before the Spring Festival, the market showed more stabilized sideways characteristics. Looking ahead to the market in February, roughly predict the situation is as follows:


First, crude oil as the most important factor in market sentiment, despite the presence in the neighborhood of $40-45 may be bottoming of the probability of a larger, but since has been weak for a long time, so in the short term at one stroke the possibility of almost does not exist. Taking into account the recent appreciation of the dollar, the technical level, there may be the possibility of short-term correction, plus the United States stocks continued to increase and a record high, so in a wide range of repeated fluctuations and to maintain the relative stability should be the main tone of crude oil in February.


Secondly, from the partial air supply and demand point of view, on the one hand, all the signs showed that domestic petrochemical enterprises in February despite the existence of a certain degree of reduction activities, but the early market large-scale parking reduction behavior is clearly not exist, although the future of petrochemical enterprises may inside there are many occupied volume, but the traditional Spring Festival off-season demand environment, in fact, still more occupy the limited market demand. If the main port of East China is still considered to be as high as 100000 tons of toluene inventory levels, the market supply pressure may actually be greater. And on the other hand, because most of the downstream end of the plant has been clearly expressed in the February 10-15 day and after the intention to focus on parking, so the sharp decline in demand has actually been a problem.


Finally, February the outer disk of the changes will be for the domestic market to the most important guiding effect and the embarrassment of supply and demand at home and abroad may cause market participants in the synchronous stalemate state, so at this time, the market can only depend on the reference, has the practical significance of the standard can only is the outer disk of the talks. And from the recent domestic terminal PTA's start rate is very stable situation, although the industry chain of transmission will have a delay or the effect of reducing the problem, but the market is generally in a deep loss, the good stability of the effect will be self-evident.

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